Colorado State University has again lowered its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with researchers now expecting well below-normal activity across the basin.

The latest outlook calls for nine named storms, including four hurricanes and one major hurricane. A typical Atlantic season produces about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. CSU initially forecast 13 named storms in April before lowering its estimate in June and again in its July 8 update.

Researchers point to a strengthening El Niño as the main reason for the lower numbers. El Niño can increase wind shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for storms to form and strengthen.

NOAA’s latest update says El Niño is already underway and is expected to continue strengthening through the end of the year.

The lower forecast is encouraging, but it isn’t an all-clear. Seasonal forecasts estimate overall activity across the Atlantic basin. They don’t predict where storms will travel or whether a particular community will be affected.

It only takes one storm near our service area to cause widespread outages and damage. Clay Electric prepares throughout hurricane season, and members should make sure their homes and families are ready, too.

Review Clay Electric’s Hurricane Preparedness Guide.