Hurricane News
Colorado State University has again lowered its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with researchers now expecting well below-normal activity across the basin.
The latest outlook calls for nine named storms, including four hurricanes and one major hurricane. A typical Atlantic season produces about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. CSU initially forecast 13 named storms in April before lowering its estimate in June and again in its July 8 update.
Researchers point to a strengthening El Niño as the main reason for the lower numbers. El Niño can increase wind shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for storms to form and strengthen.
NOAA’s latest update says El Niño is already underway and is expected to continue strengthening through the end of the year.
The lower forecast is encouraging, but it isn’t an all-clear. Seasonal forecasts estimate overall activity across the Atlantic basin. They don’t predict where storms will travel or whether a particular community will be affected.
It only takes one storm near our service area to cause widespread outages and damage. Clay Electric prepares throughout hurricane season, and members should make sure their homes and families are ready, too.
Review Clay Electric’s Hurricane Preparedness Guide.
Colorado State University forecasters are calling for a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two expected to reach major hurricane strength. The outlook reflects early-season conditions that are less favorable for widespread storm development compared to recent years.
A key factor behind the forecast is the expected development of El Niño, which typically increases wind shear across the Atlantic basin. That shear can disrupt storm formation and prevent systems from strengthening, often leading to fewer overall storms during the season.
At the same time, forecasters note that ocean temperatures closer to the United States — including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico — remain relatively warm. Those conditions can still support storm development and intensification, particularly later in the season or closer to land.
For Florida and the Southeast, that means a quieter season on paper does not necessarily translate to lower risk. Even in below-average years, a single storm can bring significant impacts if it tracks toward populated areas.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Forecasters emphasize that early outlooks carry uncertainty, and Clay Electric members are encouraged to review emergency plans and supplies ahead of the season.
Click or tap here for the news release from CSU.
